The China (Senior Living) Syndrome
Finally a post that has less than 5,000 words! Last week, I was the very beginning Chairman of the second yearly Retirement Living World China meeting in Shanghai. In seeing that this was the second such meeting and we paitocina are, as a result, in the fourth year of this industry, I started to feel that it high time for a few quantitative, scientific introductions. Unfortunately, in spite of my support and pleadings with the corporate support/occasion supervisor to set show principles, I was disappointed. However, there were a couple of generally excellent introductions and an extremely welcome declaration from Mark Spitalnik and Tom Hill that they have established the China section of IAHSA. Congrats! to these visionaries.
Maybe it is still early and China is, all things considered, not the most straightforward climate for information assortment. Notwithstanding, improvement of introductions which endeavor to determine industry issues ought not be parallel, meaning a best endeavors examination or not….I mean, it is feasible to make concentrated on allowances in view of market perceptions and proposition them easy to refute without admittance to reams of information. Sagacious introductions should be possible in a definite way and keeping in mind that they may not convey the heaviness of an intellectual, full market check utilizing huge loads of freely accessible, unquestionable information; they are useful if for only than excellent consultation.
On day two I was told I presented such a show and I solidly accept it is the main endeavor at an inventory/request assessment of the China senior living business sector. Here is my theory and what I said:
“Close to term development of supply in China senior living resources, especially the very good quality way of life item, may essentially dominate request and if valid, the subsequent irregularity is probably going to endure for the mid-term…”
The Fuel Rods
The driver of China’s incipient senior living industry is obviously its socioeconomics and much has been made of this peculiarity. Not that the socioeconomics of China are generally normal in their construction or astonishing in their immensity, they are to be sure; however I have tracked down the appreciation for the information and their utilization to be completely without basic evaluation. For instance, everybody talks about the 170 million Chinese seniors over the period of 65…and this is to be sure the figure which has been accounted for by the different Chinese specialists and upheld by the China Research Center on Aging (CRCA). Be that as it may, this figure is a gross number and hasn’t been verified for those attributes which could block one’s utilization of a senior living office, which qualities are in particular pay and other social tendencies. As a matter of fact, starting today, nobody has sincerely endeavored to subjectively dole out a size to what I call the China Senior Living accomplice (CSL associate). The inquiry is: what is the populace associate that can be dependably estimated/considered comprising of people that have the imperative qualities to think about a senior living office?
Truth is, there are no undeniable figures that would lead one to an irrefutable computation of the size of the CSL accomplice. Yet, I have done a touch of work in on this figure, for example, a conjoint investigation of 550 old people, assessments of the quantity of those more established Chinese who procure over RMB 250,000 every year and cautious survey of specific extravagance retail deals from which inductions can be made about populace size as well as different perceptions. In light of these investigations, I firmly accept the CSL accomplice of Chinese seniors from which senior living offices will draw their inhabitants is today around 10.2 million or generally 6% of the absolute populace of Chinese 65 and more seasoned (170 million). This CSL companion will extend 12% over the course of the following 4 years to roughly 11.4 million by 2016 in view of standard populace development gauges given by the CRCA.
Throughout recent years, I have made a trip from Harbin to Sanya, from Shanghai to